Impact of new housing projects in New York state Municipalities.
VARIABLES:
State Code
County Code
Expenditure per person
Wealth per person
Population
Percent intergovernmental
Density
Mean Income per person
id # (for matching)
Growth rate
VARIABLE NAMES:
"ST" "CO" "EXPEN" "WEALTH" "POP" "PINTERG"
"DENS"
"INCOME" "ID"
"GROWR"
NY Municipalities data
TOWNS OF INTEREST:
ST CO
EXPEN WEALTH POP PINTERG DENS INCOME ID GROWR
WARWICK 36 33 237 78908 16225
24.7 170 19044 8730 30.3
MONROE 36 33 159 55067
9338 8.8 599 16726 5420 30.0
TUXEDO 36 33 926 155034
2328 6.1 52 30610 8400 2.5
QUESTION : PREDICT EXPENDITURE FOR YEARS 2005 and 2025
Year POP WEALTH PINTERG DENS INCOME
1992 16225
78908 24.7 170 19044
2005 20442
85000 24.7 214 19500
2025 31033
89000 26.0 325 20000
1992 7750
55067 8.8 599 16726
2005 8996
58000 8.8 695 17100
2025 12413
60000 10.1 959 18000
1992 2317
155034 6.1 52 30610
2005 10685 116000
6.1 249 28300
2025 29246 115000
7.0 656 25000
What I expected of you for today is to have a lot of questions
and to
show us some basic attempts to fit the data. Writing
the report is
something that you should have in mind when you ask the
questions.
For example what is it that we need to know....
You must follow the format for report writing that was described in last week's notes but you still have plenty of freedom about style and content. The report could be addressed as having a group of questions in mind and answering them. Of course you need an introduction with the basic facts. It should not be too long you do notneed to describe the problem in detail because everybody should know it, but just the fact that are relevant to the analysis.
Variable=EXPEN
Histogram
# Boxplot
3300+*
1
*
.*
1
*
.
.*
1
*
.*
1
*
.
.*
1
*
.*
2
*
1700+*
1
*
.*
2
*
.*
1
*
.*
9
*
.**
11
*
.****
29
0
.*********
80
0
.*********************************************** 421
+--+--+
100+****************************************
353 +-----+
----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+--
Variable=WEALTH
Histogram
# Boxplot
575000+*
2
*
.
.*
1
*
.*
2
*
.*
2
*
.*
6
*
.*
1
*
.*
6
*
.**
25
*
.***
33
0
.*************
180 +--0--+
25000+*********************************************** 656
*-----*
----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+--
Variable=POP
Histogram
# Boxplot
470000+*
1
*
.
.
.
.*
1
*
.
.
.
.
.*
1
*
.
.
.*
1
*
.
.
.*
1
*
.*
1
*
.
.*
2
*
.*
2
*
.*
4
*
.*
6
*
.***
37
*
10000+************************************************ 857
+--0--+
----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+---
Variable=PINTER
Histogram
#
Boxplot
67.5+*
2
*
.**
6
*
.**
6
0
.*
3
0
.**
8
0
.***
11
0
.*****
23
|
.**********
48
|
.********************
97
|
.*****************************
145
+-----+
.********************************************* 221
*--+--*
.******************************************
208
+-----+
.*************************
123
|
2.5+***
13
|
----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+
Variable=GROWR
Histogram
# Boxplot
290+*
1
*
.
.
.
.
.*
1
*
.
.
.
.*
2
*
.
.*
2
*
.**
13
0
.********
93
0
.*********************************************** 563
+--+--+
.*******************
225 +-----+
.**
13
0
-50+*
1
*
----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+--
Variable=LEX
Histogram
#
Boxplot
8.1+*
2
*
.*
1
*
.*
2
*
.*
3
0
.*
3
0
.**
6
0
.**
7
0
6.7+***
11
0
.*******
25
|
.*******
27
|
.*************
52
|
.*******************
73
|
.**************************
103
+-----+
.****************************************** 167
*--+--*
5.3+***************************************** 161
| |
.*******************************
124
+-----+
.*********************
82
|
.**********
38
|
.*****
17
|
.**
5
0
.*
4
0
3.9+*
1
0
----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+--
Variable=LW
Histogram
#
Boxplot
13.3+*
2
*
.*
3
0
.*
1
0
.**
7
0
.*
1
0
.**
6
0
.*****
18
0
.****
15
|
.****
15
|
.********
31
|
.***********
44
|
11.1+************
47
|
.*******************
76
+-----+
.*************************
99
| |
.**********************************
135
*--+--*
.***************************************** 161
| |
.***********************************
138
+-----+
.*********************
84
|
.******
23
|
.**
5
|
.*
1
|
.*
1
|
8.9+*
1
0
----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+-
Plot of EXPEN*GROWR. Legend: A = 1 obs, B = 2 obs, etc.
4000 +
|
|
|
|
|
A
|
3000 +
A
|
|
EXPEN
|
A
|
A
|
|
2000 +
A
| A
A
|
A
|
A
|
A A
|
|
ABB A
1000 +
A AB B
|
A AAADA
|
AA BDBBCA A
| A BAAFEFIDB
A
|
DHRQQIGCBCA A
|
AAIZZZZZVPG AB
A
|
BEDZZZZZVNIDCC AA A
0 + A
B A A
A
-+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
-100 -50
0 50
100 150 200
250 300
GROWR
Plot of EXPEN*POP. Legend: A = 1 obs, B = 2 obs, etc.
4000 +
|
|
|
|
| A
|
3000 + A
|
|
EXPEN
| A
| A
|
|
2000 + A
| B
| A
| A
| B
|
| E A
1000 + F
| GB
| NA A A
| ZCBBAA A
| ZHFBBAA B
A A
| ZZMMIABB AAA B A
A A
A
| ZZOCDB A
0 + BC A
--+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-
0 100000
200000 300000
400000 500000
POP
Plot of LEX*LGROWR. Legend: A = 1 obs, B = 2 obs, etc.
LEX
|
|
9 +
|
|
|
|
8 +
A
A
| A A
| A
A
A
|
A
A
| A
A
7 + A
A A
B AA B A
| A
A A A
A AAA A
| AA AA
A A A A
A A CA A
| A A BA
AAA BBA A A ABA A
ACBBB A A
| A BA AA AB A AAA
A AA A CB B A BB AAA BA
6 + AA ABDACAAA ACBA
A AA AAAAAAACBAAACBBBBAAAA
A
| A BCCADA
CAA BACAAADAAACBAACCFBCAGDADCBBAA
|
AAAC CCBE BBBE A E AAD CADIEDGFMGMBFHCCBB
| B
CCCBAGBBBAAA A ABC ABCEDDBGCJIBGEGCMNBJD AB
A
| AA A BDBDBDDADBCACAADBAAAGBBDAFFBEFJEGHMFCFADBB
A
5 + A A AA
AA AAC AA A AEBBBDCCICBDBFGCJBDBBAA A
| A A A
A A AB A AABABB AEACEDCBFGCB
| A A
A AA A AA A A A
AB CBE A
A
|
A
A B A B
A A
|
A
B A
4 + A
A
A A
|
---+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--
-4 -2
0
2
4
6
Plot of LEX*LPOP. Legend: A = 1 obs, B = 2 obs, etc.
LEX
|
|
9 +
|
|
|
|
8 + A
A
| A
A
| A
A A
|
A A
| AA
7 +
A A A B A A B
A
|
A A A B A A A
A
| B
B AC B A B
A A
| A
CAAB B BDAA CA B A BB
AA A
|
A AAAC DB DBBBBA AA A AB
AA A
6 +
BABADCFEDFAABBB B ABAA BA A BA A
| A B
AABAFIDGEGF ECB ABCA A AA B D BA A B A AA
|
ABBELFOIIIKIGECDAAAFADBAB EBAA
A AA
|
B CEAELHQTKHDLDHFGDE ABCCC C A B
|
BACAFFJLMJPGJHFKJEDDHABB AA
5 +
AACDFBELHDGHDHBBBDDBAA ABA
|
AA C CADDBHEDCFBDABA AA A A A
|
AAA B BBEADBAAAA A
|
AACAAA A
|
B A A
4 +
A B
A
|
---+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--
4
6
8 10
12 14
LPOP
Plot of LEX*LDENS. Legend: A = 1 obs, B = 2 obs, etc.
LEX
|
|
9 +
|
|
|
|
8 + B
| B
| A A A
| A
A
| B
7 + A A AB A A
A AA
| A B A
AA A A
A
| A A A A BC
A A
AA AA
|
A AACBCAACA BCA A
A A A A A A A A
|
AAC CABAB CCBBAA A AA A A
A A A A
6 +
A ABCBAEBICECCC AA B AA AAAA
A A A A
|
BACABCBFGJFFBEDC A B B A AAABAB A B AC AAA
|
A AEDBHOFNJIFHEFEDBAADABBBBB AEAA A A A A
|
A A ADFJSGQQHGIFEEBFAFAABDDA A B B B
A A
|
AABAFFFKQPPILFGJDECCFBAAB B C A
5 +
B FFFGHIGKDCFBA CEAAAAAB B
|
B BECEBEIDBDECB C B B
|
C AAAAC EDBBA A A
|
A C BA AA
|
A B A
4 +
A A A
A
|
---+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--
0
2
4
6
8 10
LDENS
Model:
MODEL1
Dependent
Variable: LEX
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard T for
H0:
Variable DF Estimate
Error Parameter=0 Prob > |T|
INTERCEP 1 9.128891
1.84162410 4.957
0.0001
LW 1
0.326899 0.02870269
11.389 0.0001
LPOP 1 -2.269150
0.67760970 -3.349
0.0008
LPOP2 1 0.243843
0.07875894 3.096
0.0020
LPOP3 1 -0.008099
0.00296974 -2.727
0.0065
PINTERG 1 -0.083776
0.01017274 -8.235
0.0001
PINT2 1 0.002605
0.00037065 7.028
0.0001
PINT3 1 -0.000023080
0.00000387 -5.971
0.0001
LDENS 1 -0.181394
0.13947979 -1.301
0.1938
LDENS2 1 -0.056308
0.03251611 -1.732
0.0837
LDENS3 1 0.006721
0.00230544 2.915
0.0036
LINCOME 1 0.155568
0.07218570 2.155
0.0314
LGROWR 1 -0.015870
0.00658608 -2.410
0.0162
Cook's
Obs -2-1-0 1 2
D
885 | |**** |
0.034
886 | |*** |
0.011
887 |******| |
0.677
888 | |* |
0.000
889 | |** |
0.001
890 | **| |
0.000
891 | *| |
0.006
892 | |
| 0.000
893 | **| |
0.000
894 | |** |
0.001
895 | |* |
0.000
896 | *| |
0.000
897 | |** |
0.004
898 | |
| 0.000
899
.
900 | |** |
0.001
901 | **| |
0.001
902 | |
| 0.000
903 | |
| 0.000
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard T for
H0:
Variable DF Estimate
Error Parameter=0 Prob > |T|
INTERCEP 1 8.364134
1.81187251 4.616
0.0001
LW 1
0.337906 0.02822854
11.970 0.0001
LPOP 1 -2.123000
0.66543637 -3.190
0.0015
LPOP2 1 0.236876
0.07730017 3.064
0.0022
LPOP3 1 -0.008398
0.00291483 -2.881
0.0041
PINTERG 1 -0.081084
0.00999342 -8.114
0.0001
PINT2 1 0.002560
0.00036382 7.035
0.0001
PINT3 1 -0.000022923
0.00000379 -6.043
0.0001
LDENS 1 -0.148868
0.13698980 -1.087
0.2775
LDENS2 1 -0.072503
0.03202610 -2.264
0.0238
LDENS3 1 0.008932
0.00229281 3.896
0.0001
LINCOME 1 0.158749
0.07084256 2.241
0.0253
LGROWR 1 -0.017031
0.00646630 -2.634
0.0086
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF
Squares Square
F Value Prob>F
Model 12
176.48254 14.70688
123.144 0.0001
Error 897
107.12709 0.11943
C Total 909
283.60962
Root MSE 0.34558
R-square 0.6223
Dep Mean 5.49063
Adj R-sq 0.6172
C.V. 6.29407
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard T for
H0:
Variable DF Estimate
Error Parameter=0 Prob > |T|
INTERCEP 1 8.678552
1.79868778 4.825
0.0001
LW 1
0.338767 0.02799706
12.100 0.0001
LPOP 1 -2.355506
0.66252610 -3.555
0.0004
LPOP2 1 0.267774
0.07705389 3.475
0.0005
LPOP3 1 -0.009729
0.00291001 -3.343
0.0009
PINTERG 1 -0.080061
0.00991450 -8.075
0.0001
PINT2 1 0.002524
0.00036094 6.994
0.0001
PINT3 1 -0.000022594
0.00000376 -6.004
0.0001
LDENS 1 -0.050738
0.13806901 -0.367
0.7133
LDENS2 1 -0.103158
0.03267789 -3.157
0.0016
LDENS3 1 0.011627
0.00237202 4.902
0.0001
LINCOME 1 0.175452
0.07038409 2.493
0.0129
LGROWR 1 -0.016589
0.00641405 -2.586
0.0099
Stepwise Procedure for Dependent Variable LEX
Step 1 Variable LW Entered R-square = 0.40240739 C(p) =582.99726317
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Prob>F
Regression 1
113.28220824 113.28220824
610.08 0.0001
Error 906
168.22904622 0.18568327
Total 907
281.51125446
Parameter Standard
Type II
Variable Estimate
Error Sum of Squares
F Prob>F
INTERCEP -0.49677927
0.24289341 0.77672675
4.18 0.0411
LW
0.56523742 0.02288424
113.28220824 610.08 0.0001
Bounds
on condition number:
1, 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Step 2 Variable LDENS Entered R-square = 0.48338211 C(p) =383.50684314
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Step
3 Variable LDENS3 Entered R-square = 0.59505421
C(p) =107.63173004
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Step
4 Variable LGROWR Entered R-square = 0.60075340
C(p) = 95.45036599
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Step 7 Variable PINT3 Entered R-square = 0.63239624 C(p) = 22.71309905
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Step 8 Variable LINCOME Entered R-square = 0.63449188 C(p) = 19.49848848
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Prob>F
Regression 8
178.61660425 22.32707553
195.07 0.0001
Error 899
102.89465021 0.11445456
Total 907
281.51125446
Parameter Standard
Type II
Variable Estimate
Error Sum of Squares
F Prob>F
INTERCEP 2.74449327
0.50441862 3.38824829
29.60 0.0001
LW
0.33493799 0.02780928
16.60284462