IMPRESSIONS OF NEW JERSEY’S MAJOR POLITICAL FIGURES:
20 YEARS OF POSITIVE FEELINGS LED BY BILL BRADLEY

JOB PERFORMANCE RATINGS
Governor: Stable and Mixed     President : Down but Still Positive

RELEASE: SL/EP 69-2 (EP119-2)
JUNE 21, 1998
CONTACT: CLIFF ZUKIN (732) 932-9384, Ext. 247

A story based on the survey findings presented in this release and background memo is in the Sunday, June 21st Star-Ledger.  We ask users to properly attribute this copyrighted information to the "The Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll."                                                                                                                                                    .

There have been seven major figures in New Jersey’s recent political history--people who have run for and won statewide office, serving as Governor or U.S. Senator during the last two decades.  And all seven are popular with New Jersey’s citizens.  But one stands head and shoulders over the rest in terms of public regard--former Senator Bill Bradley, who retired in 1996.  Bradley is thinking about running for President in the year 2000.

The latest Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll asked a random sample of the New Jersey public for their impressions of the seven statewide winners: Bradley, current Senators Frank Lautenberg and Bob Torricelli, Governor Christie Whitman and former Governors Jim Florio, Tom Kean and Brendan Byrne.  The findings suggest New Jerseyans feel they have been well served by their leaders.  Each of the seven received more favorable than unfavorable evaluations from Garden State citizens.

Positive evaluations of Bradley outnumbered negative ones by a remarkable 77 to 7 percent; fully 40 percent of the public reported having a "very" favorable opinion of the former three-term Senator. Bradley was first elected to the Senate in 1978, defeating Jeff Bell, who in turn had defeated incumbent Republican Senator Clifford Case a primary election earlier that year.

Also dear to the heart of New Jersey is former Republican Governor Thomas Kean.   Sixty-five percent have a favorable impression of Kean, who led state tourism commercials intoning "New Jersey and You: Perfect Together."  Only 11 percent have an unfavorable impression of Kean, who is now president of Drew University in Madison.  Kean was elected in 1981 by a razor thin margin of less than 2,000 votes over Florio.  Four years later Kean won a landslide reelection by almost 800,000 votes over Democratic opponent Peter Shapiro.

Former Democratic Governor Jim Florio, who followed Kean in office, is the most controversial of the New Jersey 7.  Half of citizens in the state (49 percent) hold Florio in positive regard, but 39 percent say they have an unfavorable view of him.   The remaining 11 percent express no opinion. Vilified on talk radio as architect of a 2.8 billion dollar tax hike, angry voters gave Republicans veto-proof majorities of both legislative houses in 1991, midway through Florio’s term.  Florio almost rehabilitated himself in voters’ minds, narrowly losing reelection to Christie Whitman by 26,000 votes in 1993.

Whitman herself is well-liked--in fact her overall image rating runs well ahead of her job performance rating.  Favorable impressions of the Republican Governor run ahead of unfavorable ones by a margin of two-to-one--64 percent to 32 percent.  Only four percent have no impression of the current Governor, who barely won reelection over Democrat Jim McGreevy last year also by a margin of about 26,000 votes.

The June poll finds 47 percent giving the Governor positive marks of "excellent" (11 percent) or "good" (36 percent) for her performance in office, while 49 percent give her generally negative ratings of "only fair" (34 percent) or "poor" (15 percent).  The Governor’s job performance rating is basically unchanged from February of this year.  Negative job performance ratings of Whitman outnumber positive ones by a margin of 59 to 37 percent among Democrats and by 52 to 42 percent among Independents.  This trend is reversed among New Jersey self-identified Republicans, where positive job ratings outnumber negative ones by a healthy 68 to 30 percent margin, with the remainder expressing no opinion.

New Jersey’s two U.S. Senators--Lautenbrg and Torricelli--are viewed similarly.   Favorable evaluations outnumber unfavorable ones for both Senators among state residents, although significantly fewer venture opinions of Torricelli, who was first elected to Bradley’s former seat in 1996.  Lautenberg captured his Senate seat by besting Republican Millicent Fenwick in 1982. Favorable impressions of Lautenberg outnumber negative ones by a margin of 60 to 15 percent, with 25 percent expressing no opinion.  Favorable impressions of Torricelli outnumber negative ones by 48 to 13 percent, with 38 percent expressing no opinion of the first term Senator.

Former democratic Governor Brendan Byrne, who was first elected in 1973 and served two terms, is starting to fade in the state’s political memory, much as his name has been removed from what is now "Continental Arena" in the Meadowlands.  A large slice of the public--44 percent--have no impression of the former judge who presided over the great income tax battles of the early 1970s in his first term in office, as well as development of the Meadowlands and gambling in Atlantic City. Byrne is fondly remembered by 38 percent, while 18 percent hold an unflattering view or him.

Cliff Zukin, director of the Rutgers-based poll commented, "New Jerseyans appear to well satisfied with the quality people they have elected to statewide office.  And for pretty good reason.  Those who have served the state appear to have done so with integrity and as genuine public servants. There has not been a serious scandal since Harrison Williams left office due to the ABSCAM scandal in the late 1970s."

Statewide assessment of President Bill Clinton has cooled somewhat from its peak in February, when all groups in the electorate rallied to support him in the wake of allegations that he had a sexual relationship with former White House intern Monica Lewinsky, but remain decidedly positive. Currently 61 percent give him positive marks of excellent or good for his handling of the Presidency while 37 percent give him negative ratings of only fair or poor.  In February, positive assessments outnumbered negative ones by a wider margin of 69 to 29 percent, with the remainder undecided.

The small drop in Clinton’s overall job performance rating masks a more significant change in the intensity of New Jerseyans feelings about the President.   In February, the 69 percent giving him positive evaluations was comprised of 27 percent who said he was doing an "excellent" job and 42 percent who said he was doing a "good" job.  The division of June’s 61 percent positive job rating is much different--just 14 percent say he is doing an "excellent" job while 47 percent give him a job performance rating of "good."  The percentage of Democrats saying Clinton is doing an "excellent" job dropped from 44 to 18 percent between February and June.  Independents dropped from 24 to 15 percent, while the number of Republicans offering this extremely positive assessment was unchanged--9 percent in February and 7 percent in the current survey.

The poll was conducted with a random sample of 600 residents interviewed by telephone between June 8 and 11. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.

- 30 -

Copyright June 21, 1998, The Eagleton Institute and The Star-Ledger.


 BACKGROUND MEMO ¾ RELEASE SL/EP69-2 (EP119-2), SUNDAY, JUNE 21, 1998

The latest Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll was conducted between June 8 and 11, 1998, when a scientifically selected random sample of 602 New Jersey adult residents was interviewed by telephone.  All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population.  The sampling error for the total sample size of 602 is just over + 4 percent, at a 95 percent confidence interval.  Thus if 50 percent of New Jerseyans were found to have a favorable opinion of the Governor, one would be 95 percent sure that the true figure would be between 46 and 54 percent (50 + 4) had all New Jerseyans been interviewed, rather than just a sample.  Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups, such separate figures reported for men and women, are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Click here for a chart that shows the relationship between sample size and sampling error.  Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording or context effects.  The verbatim wording of all questions asked are reproduced in this background memo.  The sample has been stratified based on county and the data have been weighted on age and education to insure an accurate proportional representation of the state.  Two versions of the questionnaire were used in this study.  Not all questions were on both versions.                                                       .

How would you rate the job Christie Whitman is doing as Governor, excellent, good, only fair or poor? [Q2]

Excellent

Good

Only Fair

Poor

DK

Total

(n)

June, 1998

11%

36%

34%

15%

4%

100%

(602)

Party ID
Democrat

7

30

42

17

4

100

(195)

Independent

7

35

34

18

6

100

(213)

Republican

23

45

24

6

2

100

(156)

PAST SURVEYS
February, 1998

10

39

33

13

4

99

(802)

October, 1997

9

34

32

21

5

101

(800)

September, 1997

10

37

32

16

5

100

(800)

June, 1997

9

40

29

17

5

100

(800)

February, 1997

10

42

29

15

5

101

(800)

September, 1996

12

41

29

12

6

100

(808)

February, 1996

9

40

34

15

3

101

(804)

November, 1995

9

43

32

10

6

100

(803)

September, 1995

8

40

36

10

6

100

(804)

May, 1995

11

42

29

11

7

100

(802)

February, 1995

13

43

28

12

4

100

(801)

September, 1994

12

40

33

9

6

100

(801)

June, 1994

11

39

29

7

14

100

(801)

February, 1994

9

28

28

5

31

101

(801)

How would you rate the job Bill Clinton is doing as President, excellent, good, only fair or poor? [Q3]

Excellent

Good

Only Fair

Poor

DK

Total

(n)

June, 1998

14%

47%

27%

10%

3%

101%

(602)

Party ID
Democrat

18

64

16

1

1

100

(195)

Independent

15

44

26

11

5

101

(213)

Republican

7

32

40

21

1

101

(156)

PAST SURVEYS
February, 1998

27

42

19

10

2

100

(802)

Party ID
Democrat

44

42

10

2

1

99

(242)

Independent

24

43

20

10

2

99

(335)

Republican

9

38

33

18

2

100

(186)

February, 1997

8

43

34

13

1

99

(800)

October, 1996

9

46

30

14

2

101

(808)

I’m going to read you the names of some political figures and would like you to tell me if your opinion of each is very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t have an opinion, just say so. First, how about [Q4]

Current New Jersey U.S. Senator Bob Torricelli [Q4A]

Favorable

Unfavorable

Very

Somewhat

Somewhat

Very

No Opinion

Total

(n)

June, 1998

11%

37%

8%

5%

38%

99%

(602)

Party ID
Democrat

17

42

5

2

33

99

(195)

Independent

9

38

10

6

37

100

(213)

Republican

7

33

8

11

41

100

(156)

Current New Jersey U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg [Q4B]

Favorable

Unfavorable

Very

Somewhat

Somewhat

Very

No Opinion

Total

(n)

June, 1998

19%

41%

9%

6%

25%

100%

(602)

Party ID
Democrat

24

43

9

0

24

100

(195)

Independent

16

40

7

9

27

99

(213)

Republican

18

41

12

9

20

100

(156)

New Jersey Governor Christie Whitman [Q4C]

Favorable

Unfavorable

Very

Somewhat

Somewhat

Very

No Opinion

Total

June, 1998

22%

42%

18%

14%

4%

100%

February, 1998

17

29

13

14

27

100

Party ID
Democrat

13

44

24

16

3

100

Independent

14

45

20

16

6

101

Republican

47

38

9

6

0

100

Former Governor Thomas Kean [Q4D]

Favorable

Unfavorable

Very

Somewhat

Somewhat

Very

No Opinion

Total

June, 1998

24%

41%

8%

3%

24%

100%

Party ID
Democrat

16

41

11

4

28

100

Independent

22

41

8

3

27

101

Republican

40

40

1

2

16

99

Former Governor Brendan Byrne [Q4E]

Favorable

Unfavorable

Very

Somewhat

Somewhat

Very

No Opinion

Total

(n)

June, 1998

11%

27%

13%

5%

44%

100%

(304)

Party ID
Democrat

9

24

15

3

50

101

(97)

Independent

14

30

10

5

41

100

(109)

Republican

8

32

13

8

40

101

(76)

Former U.S. Senator Bill Bradley [Q4F]

Favorable

Unfavorable

Very

Somewhat

Somewhat

Very

No Opinion

Total

June, 1998

40%

37%

4%

3%

16%

100%

Party ID
Democrat

57

30

2

0

12

101

Independent

34

39

5

3

19

100

Republican

29

45

7

7

12

100

Former Governor Jim Florio [Q4G]

Favorable

Unfavorable

Very

Somewhat

Somewhat

Very

No Opinion

Total

(n)

June, 1998

15%

34%

18%

21%

11%

99%

(298)

Party ID
Democrat

24

42

13

10

11

100

(98)

Independent

16

33

23

15

13

100

(104)

Republican

6

28

18

42

7

101

(80)