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Recent Voting Behavior of Citizens
To be an informed observer of the 2004 elections, it is useful to have
an appreciation of electoral conditions at the state level and the recent
voting behavior of its citizens. Such information provides observers
with an understanding of which states play an important role in deciding
the presidential election; suggests how active citizens of any given
state are at election time; and forecasts how candidates might fare in
particular states.
In the United States,
presidents are chosen according to the electoral college system. Based
on its
population, each state holds a certain number
of electoral college votes. There are 538 electoral college votes in
all. A presidential candidate must secure 270 electoral votes in order
to be elected. Table 1 (see below) lists the population
of each state as well as the number of electoral college
votes
that state
holds. By examining
this list, one can determine which states hold the most electoral college
votes and, therefore, are most important to candidates. For example,
states with large populations such as California, New York, and Texas
hold a large number of electoral college votes (California holds 54 votes,
New York has 33 votes, Texas holds 32 votes) and play a crucial role
in a presidential candidate’s campaign.
Table
1: Total
Population and Electoral Votes, By State
| State |
Total
Population
|
Electoral
Votes
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| Alabama |
4,447,100 |
|
9
|
|
|
|
| Alaska |
626,932 |
|
3
|
|
|
|
| Arizona |
5,130,632 |
|
8
|
|
|
|
| Arkansas |
2,673,400 |
|
6
|
|
|
|
| California |
33,871,648 |
|
54
|
|
|
|
| Colorado |
4,301,261 |
|
8
|
|
|
|
| Connecticut |
3,405,565 |
|
8
|
|
|
|
| Delaware |
783,600 |
|
3
|
|
|
|
| Dist. of Columbia |
572,059 |
|
3
|
|
|
|
| Florida |
15,982,378 |
|
25
|
|
|
|
| Georgia |
8,186,453 |
|
13
|
|
|
|
| Hawaii |
1,211,537 |
|
4
|
|
|
|
| Idaho |
1,293,953 |
|
4
|
|
|
|
| Illinois |
12,419,293 |
|
22
|
|
|
|
| Indiana |
6,080,485 |
|
12
|
|
|
|
| Iowa |
2,926,324 |
|
7
|
|
|
|
| Kansas |
2,688,418 |
|
6
|
|
|
|
| Kentucky |
4,041,769 |
|
8
|
|
|
|
| Louisiana |
4,468,976 |
|
9
|
|
|
|
| Maine |
1,274,923 |
|
4
|
|
|
|
| Maryland |
5,296,486 |
|
10
|
|
|
|
| Massachusetts |
6,349,097 |
|
12
|
|
|
|
| Michigan |
9,938,444 |
|
18
|
|
|
|
| Minnesota |
4,919,479 |
|
10
|
|
|
|
| Mississippi |
2,844,658 |
|
7
|
|
|
|
| Missouri |
5,595,211 |
|
11
|
|
|
|
| Montana |
902,195 |
|
3
|
|
|
|
| Nebraska |
1,711,263 |
|
5
|
|
|
|
| Nevada |
1,998,257 |
|
4
|
|
|
|
| New Hampshire |
1,235,786 |
|
4
|
|
|
|
| New Jersey |
8,414,350 |
|
15
|
|
|
|
| New Mexico |
1,819,046 |
|
5
|
|
|
|
| New York |
18,976,457 |
|
33
|
|
|
|
| North Carolina |
8,049,313 |
|
14
|
|
|
|
| North Dakota |
642,200 |
|
3
|
|
|
|
| Ohio |
11,353,140 |
|
21
|
|
|
|
| Oklahoma |
3,450,654 |
|
8
|
|
|
|
| Oregon |
3,421,399 |
|
7
|
|
|
|
| Pennsylvania |
12,281,054 |
|
23
|
|
|
|
| Rhode Island |
1,048,319 |
|
4
|
|
|
|
| South Carolina |
4,012,012 |
|
8
|
|
|
|
| South Dakota |
754,844 |
|
3
|
|
|
|
| Tennessee |
5,689,283 |
|
11
|
|
|
|
| Texas |
20,851,820 |
|
32
|
|
|
|
| Utah |
2,233,169 |
|
5
|
|
|
|
| Vermont |
608,827 |
|
3
|
|
|
|
| Virginia |
7,078,515 |
|
13
|
|
|
|
| Washington |
5,894,121 |
|
11
|
|
|
|
| West Virginia |
1,808,344 |
|
5
|
|
|
|
| Wisconsin |
5,363,675 |
|
11
|
|
|
|
| Wyoming |
493,782 |
|
3
|
|
|
|
| United
States |
281,421,906 |
|
538
|
|
Source:
Federal Election Commission Website, www.fec.gov
U.S. Census Bureau Website, www.census.gov
Note: 270 electoral votes needed to elect
The recent voting behavior
of states also helps to forecast the nature of participation in the
next election. Table 2 (see below) lists the number
and percentage of citizens that registered and voted from each state
in 2000. This information is useful because it suggests which citizens
are more active and more likely to participate in the upcoming election
and which states have a history of weak participation. Such information
also might explain the voter mobilization activities of candidates and
their campaigns. For example, Texas is an important state to presidential
candidates and had relatively low rates of voter turnout in 2000 (43.1%
of the voting age population). In such a situation, it might be in a
candidate’s best interest to focus attention on getting out the
vote in such a state.
Table 2: Voter
Registration and Turnout 2000
State
|
2000
VAP
|
2000
Registered
|
%
Register.
of
VAP
|
Turnout
|
%
Turnout of Register.
|
%
Turnout of VAP
|
| Alabama |
3,333,000 |
2,528,963 |
75.9 |
1,666,272 |
65.9 |
50 |
|
|
| Alaska |
430,000 |
473,648 |
110 |
285,560 |
60.3 |
66.4 |
|
|
| Arizona |
3,625,000 |
2,173,122 |
59.9 |
1,532,016 |
70.5 |
42.3 |
|
|
| Arkansas |
1,929,000 |
1,555,809 |
80.7 |
921,781 |
59.2 |
47.8 |
|
|
| California |
24,873,000 |
15,707,307 |
63.2 |
10,965,
822 |
69.8 |
44.1 |
|
|
| Colorado |
3,067,000 |
2,274,152 |
74.1 |
1,741,368 |
76.6 |
56.8 |
|
|
| Connecticut |
2,499,000 |
1,874,245 |
75 |
1,459,526 |
77.9 |
58.4 |
|
|
| Delaware |
582,000 |
505,360 |
86.8 |
327,529 |
64.8 |
56.3 |
|
|
| Dist. of Columbia |
411,000 |
354,410 |
86.2 |
201,894 |
57 |
49.1 |
|
|
| Florida |
11,774,000 |
8,752,717 |
74.3 |
5,963,110 |
68.1 |
50.6 |
|
|
| Georgia |
5,893,000 |
3,859,960 |
65.5 |
2,583,208 |
66.9 |
43.8 |
|
|
| Hawaii |
909,000 |
637,349 |
70.1 |
367,951 |
57.7 |
40.5 |
|
|
| Idaho |
921,000 |
728,085 |
79.1 |
501,615 |
68.9 |
54.5 |
|
|
| Illinois |
8,983,000 |
7,129,026 |
79.4 |
4,742,115 |
66.5 |
52.8 |
|
|
| Indiana |
4,448,000 |
4,000,809 |
89.9 |
2,180,305 |
54.5 |
49 |
|
|
| Iowa |
2,165,000 |
1,841,346 |
85.1 |
1,314,395 |
71.4 |
60.7 |
|
|
| Kansas |
1,983,000 |
1,623,623 |
81.9 |
1,072,216 |
66 |
54.1 |
|
|
| Kentucky |
2,993,000 |
2,556,815 |
85.4 |
1,544,026 |
60.4 |
51.6 |
|
|
| Louisiana |
3,255,000 |
2,730,380 |
83.9 |
1,765,656 |
64.7 |
54.2 |
|
|
| Maine |
968,000 |
882,337 |
91.2 |
651,817 |
73.9 |
67.3 |
|
|
| Maryland |
3,925,000 |
2,715,366 |
69.2 |
2,023,735 |
74.5 |
51.6 |
|
|
| Massachusetts |
4,749,000 |
4,008,796 |
84.4 |
2,734,006 |
68.2 |
57.6 |
|
|
| Michigan |
7,358,000 |
6,861,342 |
93.3 |
4,232,501 |
61.7 |
57.5 |
|
|
| Minnesota |
3,547,000 |
3,265,324 |
92.1 |
2,438,685 |
74.7 |
68.8 |
|
|
| Mississippi |
2,047,000 |
1,739,858 |
84.9 |
994,184 |
57.1 |
48.6 |
|
|
| Missouri |
4,105,000 |
3,860,672 |
94 |
2,359,892 |
61.1 |
57.5 |
|
|
| Montana |
668,000 |
698,260 |
104.5 |
410,986 |
58.9 |
61.5 |
|
|
| Nebraska |
1,234,000 |
1,085,217 |
87.9 |
697,019 |
64.2 |
56.5 |
|
|
| Nevada |
1,390,000 |
898,347 |
64.6 |
608,970 |
67.8 |
43.8 |
|
|
| New Hampshire |
911,000 |
856,519 |
94 |
569,081 |
66.4 |
62.5 |
|
|
| New Jersey |
6,245,000 |
4,710,768 |
75.4 |
3,187,226 |
67.7 |
51 |
|
|
| New Mexico |
1,263,000 |
972,895 |
77 |
598,605 |
61.5 |
47.4 |
|
|
| New York |
13,805,000 |
11,262,816 |
81.6 |
6,960,215 |
61.8 |
50.4 |
|
|
| North Carolina |
5,797,000 |
5,122,123 |
88.4 |
2,914,990 |
56.9 |
50.3 |
|
|
| North
Dakota |
477,000 |
|
|
288,256 |
|
60.4 |
|
|
| Ohio |
8,433,000 |
7,537,822 |
89.4 |
4,701,998 |
62.4 |
55.8 |
|
|
| Oklahoma |
2,531,000 |
2,233,602 |
88.2 |
1,234,229 |
55.3 |
48.8 |
|
|
| Oregon |
2,530,000 |
1,943,699 |
76.8 |
1,533,968 |
78.9 |
60.6 |
|
|
| Pennsylvania |
9,155,000 |
7,781,997 |
85 |
4,912,185 |
63.1 |
53.7 |
|
|
| Rhode Island |
753,000 |
655,107 |
87 |
408,783 |
62.4 |
54.3 |
|
|
| South Carolina |
2,977,000 |
2,157,006 |
72.5 |
1,386,331 |
64.3 |
46.6 |
|
|
| South Dakota |
543,000 |
471,152 |
86.8 |
316,269 |
67.1 |
58.2 |
|
|
| Tennessee |
4,221,000 |
3,181,108 |
75.4 |
2,076,181 |
65.3 |
49.2 |
|
|
| Texas |
14,850,000 |
10,267,639 |
69.1 |
6,407,037 |
62.4 |
43.1 |
|
|
| Utah |
1,465,000 |
1,123,238 |
76.7 |
770,754 |
68.6 |
52.6 |
|
|
| Vermont |
460,000 |
427,354 |
92.9 |
294,308 |
68.9 |
64 |
|
|
| Virginia |
5,263,000 |
3,770,
273 |
71.6 |
2,789,808 |
74 |
53 |
|
|
| Washington |
4,368,000 |
3,335,714 |
76.4 |
2,487,433 |
74.6 |
56.9 |
|
|
| West Virginia |
1,416,000 |
1,067,822 |
75.4 |
648,124 |
60.7 |
45.8 |
|
|
| Wisconsin |
3,930,000 |
|
|
2,598,607 |
|
66.1 |
|
|
| Wyoming |
358,000 |
220,012 |
61.5 |
213,726 |
97.1 |
59.7 |
|
|
| United States |
205,815,000 |
156,421,311 |
76 |
105,586,274 |
67.5 |
51.3 |
Source: Federal Election Commission Website, www.fec.gov
Notes: 2000
VAP refers to the total Voting Age Population of the state
according to the Bureau of Census. VAP includes all persons over
the age of 18, including those ineligible to vote in U.S. elections. 2000
Registered refers to the total number of registered voters. Turnout refers
to the total vote cast for the President of the United States. North
Dakota has no voter registration. Wisconsin has election
day registration at the polls.
Finally,
Table 3 (see below) documents the number of citizens that voted
for each presidential
candidate in
2000, George Bush and Al Gore, and
the number of electoral votes the candidate received. Again, this information
gives some indication of how each party’s candidate may fare
in 2004. For example, in Massachusetts in 2000, Al Gore won the popular
and electoral college vote in a convincing fashion. This suggests that
the Republican candidate in 2004 will face an uphill battle in winning
the state and may be better off focusing his campaign energy elsewhere.
The story in other states may not be so clear cut. Florida is an obvious
example. In 2000, George Bush won the popular vote in Florida by only
537 votes thereby securing its 25 electoral college votes. Such a close
race suggests that, in 2004, the state will be up for grabs to both
the
Democratic and Republican candidates. Consequently, it is highly likely
that the candidates will place a great deal of effort into winning
the state and its valuable electoral college votes.
2000
Presidential Electoral And Popular Vote
| State |
Electoral
Vote |
Popular
Vote |
| |
Bush
(R)
|
Gore
(D)
|
Bush
(R)
|
Gore
(D) |
All
Others |
Total
Vote |
| Alabama |
9
|
|
941,173 |
692,611 |
32,488 |
1,666,272 |
|
|
| Alaska |
3
|
|
167,398 |
79,004 |
39,158 |
285,560 |
|
|
| Arizona |
8
|
|
781,652 |
685,341 |
65,023 |
1,532,016 |
|
|
| Arkansas |
6
|
|
472,940 |
422,768 |
26,073 |
921,781 |
|
|
| California |
|
54
|
4,567,429 |
5,861,203 |
537,224 |
10,965,856 |
|
|
| Colorado |
8
|
|
883,748 |
738,227 |
119,393 |
1,741,368 |
|
|
| Connecticut |
|
8
|
561,094 |
816,015 |
82,416 |
1,459,525 |
|
|
| Delaware |
|
3
|
137,288 |
180,068 |
10,266 |
327,622 |
|
|
| Dist.
of Columbia |
|
2*
|
18,073 |
171,923 |
11,898 |
201,894 |
|
|
| Florida |
25
|
|
2,912,790 |
2,912,253 |
138,067 |
5,963,110 |
|
|
| Georgia |
13
|
|
1,419,720 |
1,116,230 |
60,854 |
2,596,804 |
|
|
| Hawaii |
|
4
|
137,845 |
205,286 |
24,820 |
367,951 |
|
|
| Idaho |
4
|
|
336,937 |
138,637 |
26,047 |
501,621 |
|
|
| Illinois |
|
22
|
2,019,421 |
2,589,026 |
133,676 |
4,742,123 |
|
|
| Indiana |
12
|
|
1,245,836 |
901,980 |
51,486 |
2,199,302 |
|
|
| Iowa |
|
7
|
634,373 |
638,517 |
42,673 |
1,315,563 |
|
|
| Kansas |
6
|
|
622,332 |
399,276 |
50,610 |
1,072,218 |
|
|
| Kentucky |
8
|
|
872,492 |
638,898 |
32,797 |
1,544,187 |
|
|
| Louisiana |
9
|
|
927,871 |
792,344 |
45,441 |
1,765,656 |
|
|
| Maine |
|
4
|
286,616 |
319,951 |
45,250 |
651,817 |
|
|
| Maryland |
|
10
|
813,797 |
1,145,782 |
65,901 |
2,025,480 |
|
|
| Massachusetts |
|
12
|
878,502 |
1,616,487 |
207,995 |
2,702,984 |
|
|
| Michigan |
|
18
|
1,953,139 |
2,170,418 |
108,944 |
4,232,501 |
|
|
| Minnesota |
|
10
|
1,109,659 |
1,168,266 |
160,760 |
2,438,685 |
|
|
| Mississippi |
7
|
|
572,844 |
404,614 |
16,726 |
994,184 |
|
|
| Missouri |
11
|
|
1,189,924 |
1,111,138 |
58,830 |
2,359,892 |
|
|
| Montana |
3
|
|
240,178 |
137,126 |
33,693 |
410,997 |
|
|
| Nebraska |
5
|
|
433,862 |
231,780 |
31,377 |
697,019 |
|
|
| Nevada |
4
|
|
301,575 |
279,978 |
27,417 |
608,970 |
|
|
| New Hampshire |
4
|
|
273,559 |
266,348 |
29,174 |
569,081 |
|
|
| New Jersey |
|
15
|
1,284,173 |
1,788,850 |
114,203 |
3,187,226 |
|
|
| New Mexico |
|
5
|
286,417 |
286,783 |
25,405 |
598,605 |
|
|
| New York |
|
33
|
2,403,374 |
4,107,697 |
310,928 |
6,821,999 |
|
|
| North
Carolina |
14
|
|
1,631,163 |
1,257,692 |
22,407 |
2,911,262 |
|
|
| North
Dakota |
3
|
|
174,852 |
95,284 |
18,120 |
288,256 |
|
|
| Ohio |
21
|
|
2,351,209 |
2,186,190 |
168,058 |
4,705,457 |
|
|
| Oklahoma |
8
|
|
744,337 |
474,276 |
15,616 |
1,234,229 |
|
|
| Oregon |
|
7
|
713,577 |
720,342 |
100,049 |
1,533,968 |
|
|
| Pennsylvania |
|
23
|
2,281,127 |
2,485,967 |
146,025 |
4,913,119 |
|
|
| Rhode
Island |
|
4
|
130,555 |
249,508 |
29,049 |
409,112 |
|
|
| South
Carolina |
8
|
|
785,937 |
565,561 |
31,219 |
1,382,717 |
|
|
| South
Dakota |
3
|
|
190,700 |
118,804 |
6,765 |
316,269 |
|
|
| Tennessee |
11
|
|
1,061,949 |
981,720 |
32,512 |
2,076,181 |
|
|
| Texas |
32
|
|
3,799,639 |
2,433,746 |
174,252 |
6,407,637 |
|
|
| Utah |
5
|
|
515,096 |
203,053 |
52,605 |
770,754 |
|
|
| Vermont |
|
3
|
119,775 |
149,022 |
25,511 |
294,308 |
|
|
| Virginia |
13
|
|
1,437,490 |
1,217,290 |
84,667 |
2,739,447 |
|
|
| Washington |
|
11
|
1,108,864 |
1,247,652 |
130,917 |
2,487,433 |
|
|
| West Virginia |
5
|
|
336,475 |
295,497 |
16,152 |
648,124 |
|
|
| Wisconsin |
|
11
|
1,237,279 |
1,242,987 |
118,341 |
2,598,607 |
|
|
| Wyoming |
3
|
|
147,947 |
60,481 |
9,923 |
218,351 |
|
|
| Total: |
271 |
266 |
50,456,002
47.87% |
50,999,897
48.38% |
3,949,201
3.75% |
105,405,100 |
Source:
Federal Election Commission Website, www.fec.gov
Notes: * The District
of Columbia has 3 electoral votes. Two votes were cast for Gore and
the third was an abstention. There are 538 total electoral votes
and 270 electoral votes are needed to elect.
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