Electoral Results for 2004 General Election

Electoral Outlook for 2004 General Election

Source: http://www.zogby.com, 02-Nov-2004.
Solid colors (red or blue) indicate a lead of 5% or more.  "Leaning" states (pink or cyan) indicate a lead of 4% or less.

02-Nov-2004: Here we go again.  Zogby's final battleground state poll has Kerry at 264, Bush at 247, and one state undecided: Florida (27 Electoral Votes).  It appears that as in 2000, the winner of Florida will win the Presidential Election.

01-Nov-2004 : One day left until Election Day.  Kerry's estimated Electoral College lead over Bush has widened to 298 to 231. Two states are tied: New Mexico and New Hampshire.   Could undecideds be breaking for Kerry?  We'll find out tomorrow.

31-Oct-2004 : Two days to go and Kerry now leads 283 to 246.  See how quickly it can change?  New Jersey is back to blue (for Kerry) but Nevada and New Hampsire are now too close to call.

30-Oct-2004: Three days to go and Bush is up 280 to 243 for Kerry in the estimated Electoral Vote, with one state (New Jersey, 15 Electoral Votes) too close to call.  Bush's margin is far from a lock, as several states are within the margin of error.  Colorado, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, and Iowa seem to swing back and forth almost daily.  This race will go down to the last day.  It's just too close to call.

27-Oct-2004: It's far from over; the latest estimates show Bush at 274 and Kerry at 257 in estimated electoral votes.  I changed the way I show the colors; "Leaning" now means within the margin of error, while solid colors indicate a lead of 5% or more.  It's a bit of a misnomer to call California "weak Kerry" or Mississippi "weak Bush." When the respective candidate holds a 8-9% lead, there's no way either of these states are up for grabs.  It seems the race will be decided in the following states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Colorado, and Nevada.

20-Oct-2004: The latest estimates show John Kerry leading for 291 electoral votes (enough to win the election) to George W. Bush's 247.  In the latest polls (which include a Zogby poll of 16 battleground states), no two states are exactly tied, though many are within the margin of error (including Ohio and Florida).  

18-Oct-2004: All three Presidential Debates have now concluded.  The latest statewide polls estimate John Kerry holds a 257-247 Electoral College lead over George W. Bush, with two battleground states too close to call: Iowa  and (you guessed it) Florida.  On this map, neither candidate has the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election; Florida's 27 Electoral Votes would put either candidate over the top.  Sound familiar?

07-Oct-2004: After the first Presidential debate and the Vice-Presidential debate, the latest Electoral College estimates have narrowed.  Bush hold a 264-253 lead over Kerry, with neither candidate above the 270 needed to win the election.

29-Sep-2004: Heading into the debates, Bush leads in the polls, currently holding an estimated 273-241 Electoral College lead over Kerry. 

22-Sep-2004: Over the last week, Bush's estimated lead in the Electoral College reached over 100 votes.  But the latest polls show John Kerry now in the lead, 269 to 253, with several states too close to call.

13-Sep-2004: You would never guess from listening to the mainstream media, but John Kerry actually holds a 269-233 hypothetical Electoral Vote lead over George W. Bush, based on the most recent polls.  3 states are too close to call.

06-Sep-2004 :  The week after the Republican National Convention, Kerry still trails Bush in the latest electoral tally - but actually closed the gap a bit from last week.  Bush leads the hypothetical electoral vote 275-247.

31-Aug-2004: Kerry now trails Bush in a hypothetical Electoral College vote, 280 to 242, again with 2 states up for grabs. Several states have been teetering back and forth between the Kerry and Bush columns for the past few weeks (e.g. PA, WV, OH, FL, TN, WI, IA, NV).

23-Aug-2004: Kerry leads a hypothetical Electoral College vote, 286 to 233 for Bush, with 2 states up for grabs.  A voter referendum in Colorado may allow that state to split its electoral votes proportionally.

29-Jul-2004: Kerry Accepts Nomination. At the 2004 Democratic National Convention, John Kerry officially accepted the Democratic nomination for President of the United States.

06-Jul-2004: It's Edwards for VP! John Kerry announced that John Edwards, his runner-up in the Democratic Primaries, will be his running-mate on the Democratic ticket as a candidate for vice president of the United States.

2004 Democratic Presidential Primary and Caucus Results by State

09-Jun-2004: IT'S OVER. The 2004 Democratic Primaries ended yesterday, with presumptive nominee John Kerry polishing off his last opponent, Dennis Kucinich, in New Jersey (92% to 4%) and Montana (73% to 11%).  Kerry also won the Puerto Rico caucuses last weekend.  

Kerry, who won 46 states, thereby concluded an impressive string of victories in a campaign which he began as an underdog to erstwhile front-runner Howard Dean.  In the end, Dean only won his home state of Vermont and a preliminary "beauty contest" primary in Washington, D.C. (though Kerry later won D.C.'s delegates in a binding primary).  The only other competitive candidate, John Edwards, won two Southern primaries, positioning himself as a favorite for the Vice-Presidential nomination. 

03-Jun-2004: With the Democratic presidential nomination long since a fait accompli, John Kerry racked up a couple more wins in the home stretch of the primary season:  Alabama (75%) and South Dakota (82%).  I don't know about you, but I'm anxiously awaiting the result's of New Jersey's "last in the nation" primary on June 8. 

18-May-2004: John Kerry won the Arkansas primary with 66% of the vote. Wesley Clark was no longer on the ballot, preventing a Dean/Edwards-style "favorite son" victory.  Kerry also won primaries in Kentucky (60% to Edwards' 14.5%) and Oregon (81% to 16.6% for Kucinich).  Arkansas and Kentucky should be hotly contested in the general election.

11-May-2004: More "so what" wins for John Kerry in Nebraska (73%) and West Virginia (69%), the latter a state the Democrats desperately need to recapture in the general election (Gore would be President now had he won West Virginia).  Erstwhile candidate and rumoured VP pick John Edwards finished a distant second in both races with 14%. 

04-May-2004: Surprise, surprise: John Kerry won the Indiana primary with 73% of the vote; John Edwards was a distant second with 11%.  Indiana is one of the most conservative states in the country and will almost certainly go "red" in November unless Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) somehow gets the VP nomination. 

27-Apr-2004: With everyone focused on the general election contest between Bush, Kerry and Nader, few news outlets are reporting presidential primary results.  Thanks to http://www.thegreenpapers.com for reporting the Pennsylvania results: Kerry 73.5%; Dean 10.1%; Edwards 9.7%; Kucinich 3.8%.  Pennsylvania figures to be an important battleground state in the November general election.

17-Apr-2004: John Edwards, who had already conceded the nomination to John Kerry, won a late primary in his home state of North Carolina.  Edwards won 51% of the vote to Kerry's  27%.

13-Apr-2004:John Kerry wins the Colorado caucuses with 61% of the vote.  Dennis Kucinich finished second with 12%.

27-Mar-2004: In a little-reported news item, John Kerry won the American Expatriate vote and picked up 4.5 delegates.  Howard Dean finished second, gaining 2.5 delegates (did they know he dropped out of the race?)

20-Mar-2004: With the nomination officially locked up, John Kerry won caucuses in Alaska and Wyoming.  Dennis Kucinich finished second with 27% in Alaska and picked up 5 delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

16-Mar-2004: John Kerry won the Illinois primary and was already looking ahead to the fall campaign against George Bush.  Carol Moseley-Braun, who dropped out of the race before any primaries were held, finished 3rd in her home state with 4%.  Al Sharpton endorsed Kerry, but did not end his own quixotic campaign, hoping to keep his issues alive until June's  Democratic convention.

13-Mar-2004: Kerry Clinches Nomination.  John Kerry picked up enough support from "superdelegates" to put him over the threshold of 2162 needed to claim the Democratic nomination for President.  Kerry also won the Kansas caucuses.

09-Mar-2004: "Southern Tuesday"With no strong primary opposition, John Kerry swept the primaries in Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas.  Kerry edged closer to the number of delegates needed to claim the Democratic Presidential nomination. 

02-Mar-2004: Super Tuesday!  John Kerry knocked John Edwards out of the race with a near-sweep of the Super Tuesday states.  Kerry carried California, Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, and Rhode Island.  A Kerry sweep was prevented not by Edwards, but by Howard Dean, who managed to win his home state of Vermont where he was still on the ballot.  Edwards announced that he would end his candidacy, leaving Kerry as the presumptive nominee.

24-Feb-2004:  John Kerry picked up solid victories in Hawaii, Idaho, and Utah.  Most of the candidates bypassed campaigning in these states, instead focusing on Super Tuesday's primaries.

18-Feb-2004: Howard Dean officially ended active campaigning for the Democratic Presidential Nomination.  He had considered Wisconsin a must-win to keep his campaign running.  Dean did not release his delegates, urging them to fight on until the convention.  Dean's announcement left John Kerry and John Edwards as the last two major candidates, with Dennis Kucinich and Al Sharpton continuing their protest candidacies.

17-Feb-2004: Massachusetts Senator John Kerry eked out a narrow victory over North Carolina Senator John Edwards in Wisconsin, while former Vermont Governor Howard Dean continued his freefall into also-ran status.  The Wisconsin result makes it essentially a two-man race between Kerry and Edwards heading into Super Tuesday (March 2).  

Updated 05-Nov-2004