Strong Arm Tactics:
A History and Statistical Analysis of the Professional Quarterback
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Strong Arm Tactics: A History and Statistical Analysis of the Professional Quarterback |
Preface
There are three things that football broadcasters do on a regular basis that drive me crazy. One is their endless chatter about irrelevant nonsense. A second is that they do not keep track of who is on the field and what formations the teams are aligned in. The third is when they provide statistics without any context for comparison. For example, they might say that Jake Plummer has 69 wins. OK, so what. How does that compare to other active players? How many losses does he have? How does his winning percentage compare to his peers? How do his numbers compare to quarterbacks from other time periods? No player exists in a vacuum, but the way numbers are tossed out on television, it sometimes seems that way.
I always have had a love for football history and statistics and am always seeking meaningful and comprehendible ways to compare and rank quarterbacks because quarterback is the most complex and interesting position in this most complicated of team games. Sports statistics have expanded exponentially in recent decades, but are not always transparent in meaning. The numbers wizards at Football Outsiders have created some amazing statistical measures to try to determine how effective particular players are within a game in which all statistics are wholly dependent on how well your 10 teammates perform. I find their work well written, convincing and informative, but the statistics are so complicated and seemingly removed from the game itself that I don't really understand what they are measuring. That's why in this book I deal only in basic statistics and comparative percentages; I think there is still much that can be learned from examining these types of numbers with the right perspective.
The book is divided into three sections. The first section offers a narrative study of the quarterback position through professional football history. I try to provide a variety of perspectives in looking at quarterbacks. I classify major quarterback types according to physical attributes, attitude, playing style and role on a team. I examine where quarterbacks come from and the arc of their careers. I look at the greatest winners and the worst losers, and I try to cumulate various measures and rankings to discern who were the very best quarterbacks ever.
This section is filled with tables that provide a variety of views of quarterbacks. There are tables of black quarterbacks, running quarterbacks and rookie quarterbacks. There are tables listing won-lost records and fourth quarter comebacks for signal callers going all the way back in history, in addition to full postseason records for all quarterbacks and relative passer ratings to compare quarterbacks across eras. In most cases, the tables in the narrative are abbreviated with complete tables either included in the appendices or on my website (http://www.rci.rutgers.edu/~maxymuk/home/home.html). The won-lost records and comeback tallies were accumulated by hand, largely by going through old newspaper accounts. Won-lost records prior to 1950 are merely estimates due to the way players were used in those days. Data from the 1950s and for the earliest years of the AFL were hard to come by and required some intuition at times in deciphering just who the starting quarterback was these numbers are probably not flawless, but are as accurate a reading I could compile, and they do provide context to the published records of current quarterbacks.
The second section is a study of the quarterback within his own time period. I divided pro football history into six eras that seemed to indicate significant change and provided separate sections on the All America Conference and the American Football League. The first era from 1920-32 was a time of infrequent passing and no official records, although I have used the incomplete and unofficial data culled from newspaper accounts for the Neft, Cohen and Korch Football Encyclopedia. Rule and equipment changes ushered in a new era in 1933, and this was an era in transition from the single wing to the Modern T formation. The postwar era that began in 1946 exhibited the wide open passing possibilities of the Modern T and of two-platoon, free substitution football that marked the beginnings of the NFL's vast growth in popularity. Another transitional era began in 1960 with greater and greater emphasis placed on ball control offense and sturdy defense to the point where the league repeatedly tinkered with the rules throughout the 1970s until they finally amended the rules on pass defense so radically that the contemporary era of football began in 1978. It has been onward and upward with passing ever since, and further changes in 1994 completely created the coach's game that flourishes today.
There are certainly other ways that pro football could be divided into quarterback eras, but these made the most sense to me. The point is to be able to compare meaningfully the basic statistics of quarterbacks. Johnny Unitas' statistics don't look so hot compared to Peyton Manning's, but compared to the quarterbacks he competed against, he is clearly at the top. In this second section, I include statistics for the leading quarterbacks of the period and a description of the characteristics of the game at that time. For each season, there is a summary of rule and equipment changes, top rookies, best and worst performances and postseason notes. Statistics for the league and for the top quarterbacks are given. "Top" quarterbacks for each year are defined as those who finished in the top five of any of these categories: completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, or passer rating.
The third section breaks down quarterbacks by team. For each current team, statistics are detailed for the top 10-20 quarterbacks. Other team information is given in self-explanatory categories, such as Best and Worst Starters, Best Leader, Most Accurate, Tallest, Smallest, Oldest, Quarterback Controversy, Nicknames, Off the Field and a bibliography of books by and about that team's quarterbacks.
There are also three appendices. Appendix A details passing records. Appendix B features a dozen data tables, more complete than the excerpts included in the text. Appendix C consists of four listings for quarterbacks - first round draft picks, trades, award winners and uniform numbers worn.
My hope is that this work will be useful to any football fan who wants to know
more about professional quarterbacks -- how they have changed the game and how
the game has changed the position.
