Rookie Quarterbacks

Strong Arm Tactics:

A History and Statistical Analysis of the Professional Quarterback

Rookie Quarterbacks

Approximately 180 passers threw at least 100 passes in their rookie seasons, and they cumulatively completed a measly 50.3% of their passes for a substandard 6.5 yards per pass and tossed just 3.9% of their passes for touchdowns while throwing 5.5% of their passes for interceptions. Not surprisingly, they fall shy of the average league performance in all categories. In recent years, rookie completion percentages have been better because of the nature of the modern short passing game, but they still fall significantly short of the contemporary league average. The difficulty of the position is a big reason that it is rare for a quarterback to be Rookie of the Year - only 10 have won the award in the 42 years it has been given. Of these 10, Dan Marino was an unqualified success, but Dennis Shaw of the Bills and Rick Mirer of the Seahawks turned out to be flops. On the flip side, Terry Bradshaw and Troy Aikman had difficult freshmen seasons but Hall of Fame careers. In the book, I listed rookie quarterbacks who threw at least 250 passes and were above the average league passer rating or were at least 20% below that average. The first table lists the rookies who threw at least 250 passes but were left out of the book, and the second table gives the numbers for rookies who threw between 100 and 249 passes through the 2006 season.

250+ Pass Rookies Below Average by Less than 20%, through 2006

Quarterback	Rookie Year	Age	Team	Games	Att.	Comp.	%	Yards	Y/Att	TD	Int	Rating	Relative Rating
George, Jeff	1990	22	IND	13	334	181	54.2	2152	6.4	16	13	73.8	95
Couch, Tim	1999	22	CLE	15	399	223	55.9	2447	6.1	15	13	73.2	95
Plummer, Jake	1997	22	ARZ	10	296	157	53	2203	7.4	15	15	73.1	95
Leinart, Matt	2006	23	ARZ	12	377	214	56.8	2547	6.8	11	12	74	94
Simms, Phil	1979	23	NYG	12	265	134	50.6	1743	6.6	13	14	66	94
Palmer, Carson	2004	24	CIN	14	432	263	60.9	2897	6.7	18	18	77.3	93
Leftwich, Byron	2003	23	JAX	15	418	239	57.2	2819	6.7	14	16	73	92
Banks, Tony	1996	23	STL	14	368	192	52.2	2544	6.9	15	15	71	92
Grogan, Steve	1975	22	NEP	13	274	139	50.7	1976	7.2	11	18	60.4	92
Manning, Peyton	1998	22	IND	16	575	326	56.7	3739	6.5	26	28	71.2	91
Bartkowski, Steve	1975	22	ATL	11	255	115	45.1	1662	6.5	13	15	59.3	90
Mirer, Rick	1993	23	SEA	16	486	274	56.4	2833	5.8	12	17	67	87
Woodley, David	1980	22	MIA	13	327	176	53.8	1850	5.7	14	17	63.1	86
Young, Vince	2006	23	TEN	15	357	184	51.5	2199	6.2	12	13	66.7	85
Bledsoe, Drew	1993	21	NEP	13	429	214	49.9	2494	5.8	15	15	65	85
Gradkowski, Bruce	2006	23	TBB	13	328	177	54	1661	5.1	9	9	65.9	84

Rookies Who Threw Between 100-249 Passes, through 2006

Quarterback	Rookie Year	Age	Team	Games	Att.	Comp.	%	Yards	Y/Att	TD	Int	Rating	Relative Rating
Friedman, Benny	1927	22	XCLE	13	205	96	46.8	1721	8.4	12	11	73.2	NA
Graham, Otto	1946	24	CLE	13	174	95	54.6	1834	10.5	17	5	112.1	202
Newman, Harry	1933	24	NYG	14	136	53	39	973	7.2	11	17	51.7	194
Waterfield, Bob	1945	25	STL	10	171	89	52	1609	9.4	14	17	72.4	153
Baugh, Sammy	1937	23	WSH	11	171	81	47.4	1127	6.6	8	14	50.5	146
Hall, Parker	1939	22	STL	11	208	106	51	1227	5.9	9	13	57.5	145
Governali, Paul	1946	25	XNEP	10	192	83	43.2	1293	6.7	13	10	67	141
Haden, Pat	1976	23	STL	10	105	60	57.1	896	8.5	8	4	94.8	141
Cook, Greg	1969	22	CIN	11	197	106	53.8	1854	9.4	15	11	88.3	137
Clement, Johnny	1941	22	ARZ	9	100	48	48	690	6.9	3	7	51.7	131
Reisz, Albie	1944	26	STL	10	113	49	43.4	777	6.9	8	10	53.6	127
Bulger, Marc	2002	25	STL	7	214	138	64.5	1826	8.5	14	6	101.5	126
Albert, Frankie	1946	26	SFF	14	197	104	52.8	1404	7.1	14	14	69.8	126
Unitas, Johnny	1956	23	IND	12	198	110	55.6	1498	7.6	9	10	74	124
Boryla, Mike	1974	23	PHL	4	102	60	58.8	580	5.7	5	3	78.9	123
Le Baron, Eddie	1952	22	WSH	12	194	96	49.5	1420	7.3	14	15	65.7	118
Rypien, Mark	1988	26	WSH	9	208	114	54.8	1730	8.3	18	13	85.2	117
Anderson, Ken	1971	22	CIN	11	131	72	55	777	5.9	5	4	72.6	117
Coffee, Pat	1937	22	ARZ	9	119	52	43.7	824	6.9	4	11	40	116
Kennedy, Tom	1966	26	NYG	6	100	55	55	748	7.5	7	6	77.4	115
O'Brien, Davey	1939	22	PHL	11	201	99	49.3	1324	6.6	6	17	45.3	114
LeForce, Clyde	1947	24	DET	9	175	94	53.7	1384	7.9	13	20	65	113
Cutler, Jay	2006	23	DEN	5	137	81	59.1	1001	7.3	9	5	88.5	113
Ratterman, George	1947	20	ZBUF	14	244	124	50.8	1840	7.5	22	20	71.8	111
Brooks, Aaron	2000	24	NOS	8	194	113	58.2	1514	7.8	9	6	85.7	110
McMahon, Jim	1982	23	CHI	8	210	120	57.1	1501	7.2	9	7	79.9	109
Celeri, Bob	1951	24	XNYY	11	238	102	42.9	1797	7.6	12	15	59.8	108
Gabriel, Roman	1962	22	STL	6	101	57	56.4	670	6.6	3	2	78.4	108
Clatterbuck, Bobby	1954	22	NYG	9	101	50	49.5	781	7.7	6	7	66.5	108
King, Shaun	1999	22	TBB	6	146	89	61	875	6.0	7	4	82.4	107
Rubley, T.J.	1993	24	STL	9	189	108	57.1	1338	7.1	8	6	80.1	104
Slaughter, Mickey	1963	22	DEN	13	223	112	50.2	1689	7.6	12	14	67.3	103
Etchevery, Sam	1961	31	ARZ	14	196	96	49	1275	6.5	14	11	70.4	103
Wood, Gary	1964	22	NYG	12	143	66	46.2	952	6.7	6	3	73.5	103
Parilli, Babe	1952	23	GBP	12	177	77	43.5	1416	8.0	13	17	56.6	102
Hebert, Bobby	1985	25	NOS	6	181	97	53.6	1208	6.7	5	4	74.6	101
Briscoe, Marlin	1968	23	DEN	11	224	93	41.5	1589	7.1	14	13	62.9	100
Schroeder, Jay	1985	24	WSH	9	209	112	53.6	1458	7.0	5	5	73.8	100
Bertelli, Angelo	1946	25	ZLAD	12	127	67	52.8	917	7.2	7	14	54.9	99
Bratkowski, Zeke	1954	23	CHI	12	130	67	51.5	1087	8.4	8	17	60.8	98
Campbell, Jason	2006	24	WSH	7	207	110	53.1	1297	6.3	10	6	76.5	97
O'Brien, Ken	1984	23	NYJ	10	203	116	57.1	1402	6.9	6	7	74	97
Root, Jim	1953	22	ARZ	11	192	80	41.7	1149	6.0	8	11	51.8	97
Manning, Archie	1971	22	NOS	12	177	86	48.6	1164	6.6	6	9	60.1	97
Stouffer, Kelly	1988	24	SEA	8	173	98	56.6	1106	6.4	4	6	69.2	95
Kosar, Bernie	1985	21	CLE	12	248	124	50	1578	6.4	8	7	69.3	94
Frye, Charlie	2005	24	CLE	7	164	98	59.8	1002	6.1	4	5	72.8	93
Fitzpatrick, Ryan	2005	22	STL	4	135	76	56.3	777	5.8	8	9	73	93
Majkowski, Don	1987	23	GBP	7	127	55	43.3	875	6.9	5	3	70.2	93
Shaw, George	1955	22	IND	12	237	119	50.2	1586	6.7	10	19	52.5	92
Chandler, Chris	1988	23	IND	15	233	129	55.4	1619	7.0	8	12	67.2	92
Beuerlein, Steve	1988	23	OAK	10	238	105	44.1	1643	6.9	8	7	66.6	91
Everett, Jim	1986	23	STL	6	147	73	49.7	1018	6.9	8	8	67.8	91
Christman, Paul	1945	27	ARZ	8	219	89	40.6	1147	5.2	5	12	42.6	90
Ramsey, Patrick	2002	23	WSH	10	227	117	51.5	1539	6.8	9	8	71.8	89
Peete, Rodney	1989	23	DET	8	195	103	52.8	1479	7.6	5	9	67	89
Hodson, Tommy	1990	23	NEP	7	156	85	54.5	968	6.2	4	5	68.5	89
McMahon, Mike	2001	22	DET	8	115	53	46.1	671	5.8	3	1	69.9	89
Reaves, John	1972	22	PHL	11	224	108	48.2	1508	6.7	7	12	58.4	88
Dorow, Al	1954	24	WSH	11	138	70	50.7	997	7.2	8	17	54.2	88
McNown, Cade	1999	22	CHI	15	235	127	54	1465	6.2	8	10	66.7	87
Green, Johnny	1960	23	BUF	10	228	89	39	1267	5.6	10	10	54.1	87
Owen, Tom	1974	22	SFF	10	184	88	47.8	1327	7.2	10	15	56.1	87
Avellini, Bob	1975	22	CHI	8	126	67	53.2	942	7.5	6	11	57	87
Carter, Virgil	1968	22	CHI	7	122	55	45.1	769	6.3	4	5	59.8	87
Pagel, Mike	1982	22	IND	9	221	111	50.2	1281	5.8	5	7	62.4	85
Luck, Oliver	1983	23	TEN	7	217	124	57.1	1375	6.3	8	13	63.4	84
Esiason, Boomer	1984	23	CIN	10	102	51	50	530	5.2	3	3	62.9	83
Lomax, Neil	1981	22	ARZ	14	236	119	50.4	1575	6.7	4	10	59.9	82
Enke, Fred	1948	23	DET	12	221	100	45.2	1328	6.0	11	17	49.4	82
Williams, Doug	1978	23	TBB	10	194	73	37.6	1170	6.0	7	8	53.4	82
Carlson, Cody	1988	24	TEN	6	112	52	46.4	775	6.9	4	6	59.2	81
Walsh, Steve	1989	22	DAL	8	219	110	50.2	1371	6.3	5	9	60.5	80
Carter, Quincy	2001	24	DAL	8	176	90	51.1	1072	6.1	5	7	63	80
Testaverde, Vinny	1987	23	TBB	6	165	71	43	1081	6.6	5	6	60.2	80
Vick, Michael	2001	21	ATL	8	113	50	44.2	785	7.0	2	3	62.7	80
Boller, Kyle	2003	22	BAL	11	224	116	51.8	1260	5.6	7	9	62.4	79
Munson, Bill	1964	23	STL	11	223	108	48.4	1533	6.9	9	15	56.5	79
Choboian, Max	1966	24	DEN	14	163	82	50.3	1110	6.8	4	12	49.9	79
Tripucka, Frank	1949	21	DET	6	145	62	42.8	833	5.7	9	14	42.8	79
McNabb, Donovan	1999	22	PHL	12	216	106	49.1	948	4.4	8	7	60.1	78
Mackey, Kyle	1987	25	MIA	3	109	57	52.3	604	5.5	3	5	58.8	78
Zolak, Scott	1992	24	NEP	6	100	52	52	561	5.6	2	4	58.8	78
Frerotte, Gus	1994	23	WSH	5	100	46	46	600	6.0	5	5	61.3	78
Tolliver, Billy Joe	1989	23	SDC	5	185	89	48.1	1097	5.9	5	8	57.9	77
Young, Steve	1985	24	TBB	5	138	72	52.2	935	6.8	3	8	56.9	77
Sinkwich, Frankie	1943	23	DET	10	126	50	39.7	699	5.6	7	20	37.2	76
Whelihan, Craig	1997	26	SDC	9	237	118	49.8	1357	5.7	6	10	58.3	75
Maddox, Tommy	1992	21	DEN	13	121	66	54.5	757	6.3	5	9	56.4	75
Hunter, Scott	1971	23	GBP	13	163	75	46	1210	7.4	7	17	46.1	74
Sherman, Tom	1968	22	NEP	14	226	90	39.8	1199	5.3	12	16	45.6	73
Sipe, Brian	1974	25	CLE	10	108	59	54.6	603	5.6	1	7	47	73
Smith, Akili	1999	24	CIN	7	153	80	52.3	805	5.3	2	6	55.6	72
Brunner, Scott	1980	23	NYG	16	112	52	46.4	610	5.5	4	6	53.1	72
Filchock, Frank	1938	22	PIT/WSH	12	101	41	40.6	469	4.6	3	11	25.6	72
Fouts, Dan	1973	22	SDC	10	194	87	44.8	1126	5.8	6	13	46	71
Ferguson, Joe	1973	23	BUF	14	164	73	44.5	939	5.7	4	10	45.8	71
Douglass, Bobby	1969	22	CHI	9	148	68	45.9	773	5.2	5	8	50.9	71
Burk, Adrian	1950	22	XBAL	12	119	43	36.1	798	6.7	6	12	37.4	71
Freitas, Jesse Jr.	1974	23	SDC	5	109	49	45	719	6.6	3	8	45.6	71
Gildea, John	1935	25	PIT	12	105	28	26.7	529	5.0	3	20	18	71
Pisarcik, Joe	1977	25	NYG	13	241	103	42.7	1346	5.6	4	14	42.3	69
Evans, Ray	1948	26	PIT	9	137	64	46.7	924	6.7	5	17	41.7	69
Whitehurst, David	1977	22	GBP	7	105	50	47.6	634	6.0	1	7	42.3	69
Cahill, Ronnie	1943	28	ARZ	10	109	50	45.9	608	5.6	3	21	33.1	68
Manning, Eli	2004	23	NYG	9	197	95	48.2	1043	5.3	6	9	55.4	67
Wilson, George Jr.	1966	23	MIA	14	112	46	41.1	764	6.8	5	10	42.4	67
Zeier, Eric	1995	23	CLE	7	161	82	50.9	864	5.4	4	9	51.9	65
Wilson, Dave	1981	22	NOS	11	159	82	51.6	1058	6.7	1	11	46.1	63
Hanratty, Terry	1969	21	PIT	8	126	52	41.3	716	5.7	8	13	41.7	58
Darragh, Dan	1968	21	BUF	11	215	92	42.8	917	4.3	3	14	33	53
Smith, Alex	2005	23	SFF	9	165	84	50.9	875	5.3	1	11	40.8	52
Taliaferro, George	1949	22	ZLAD	11	124	45	36.3	790	6.4	4	14	30	51
Leaf, Ryan	1998	22	SDC	10	245	111	45.3	1289	5.3	2	15	39	50
Rote, Tobin	1950	22	GBP	12	224	83	37.1	1231	5.5	7	24	26.7	50
Todd, Richard	1976	22	NYJ	13	162	65	40.1	870	5.4	3	12	33.2	50
Bradshaw, Terry	1970	22	PIT	13	218	83	38.1	1410	6.5	6	24	30.4	46
Domres, Marty	1969	22	SDC	10	112	47	42	631	5.6	2	10	29.3	45
Jones, Bert	1973	22	IND	8	108	43	39.8	539	5.0	4	12	28.8	44
Ortman, Chuck	1951	22	PIT	12	139	56	40.3	671	4.8	3	13	24	43
Panciera, Don	1949	22	ZNYY	12	150	51	34	801	5.3	5	16	24.2	41
McCullough, Hugh	1939	23	PIT	10	100	32	32	443	4.4	2	12	14.3	36
Heath, Stan	1949	22	GBP	12	106	26	24.5	355	3.4	1	14	4.6	9

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Updated 6/12/07