` DATA ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING

DATA ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING 22:960:575

### Instructor: Prof. Michael N. Katehakis, Ph.D. TA: TBA ,      send email

Syllabus       Academic-Calendar

Note: Mid Term on March 30
(No class on March 23)

A nice free Introduction to Probabilty text: E. S. Wentzel: Probability Theory (First Steps)

## Notes and Assignments

Lectures Class Notes and Exampless Assignments & Solutions
1   a)   Random Variables
b)   Simulation: Example 1
c)   Simulation: Example 2
a) READ: Chapters 1, 2
of Introduction to Probability,
b) READ: Chapters 1, 2, 5
of Main Text:
2   a)   Simulation: Data-Table
b)   Simulation: more applications
c)   Simulation: with Mathematica
a) READ: Chapter 2, pp.49-82
b) READ: Chapter 3, pp. 111-132
c) READ: Chapter 5, pp. 195-219
3   a)   Lecture Notes
b)   Joint Distributions - correlation
a)   Do Problems 2.23, 2.24, 2.26 p. 106-107
Prepare     Solutions
4   a)   Simulation: Data-Table
b)   Simulation: Inventory Control
c)   Introduction to : Estimation
5   a)   Class Example: Histograms for Coins
b)   Class Example 2: Inventory and 401K Simulation
a)   Solve Problem in `Finance Simulation' Sheet of Inventory and 401K Simulation   Prepare
b)   Study the excel files posted
c)   Read Sections 3.1 - 3.8 of Chapter 3.
6   a)   Problem in `Finance Simulation' Solution
b)   Data Tables with Two Variables
a)   Study the excel files posted
7   a)   Bayes Estimation
(review Section 2.12 of text)
b)    Continuous Distributions and C.L.T. - xlsx
c)    Confidence Intervals - xlsx
d)    Theory Insight
a)   Study the excel files posted
b)   Read Sections 4.1 - 4.4 of Chapter 4.
c)   Study the Case Study of sec 4.11
d)   Solve Problems 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 and 4.11 of Chapter 4.
Solutions
Bayes Problem Collect with email
Solution by Ms. Josephine Bagtas
8   a)   CLT Bernoulli random variables
b)   CLT Uniform random variables
c)   Confidence Intervals - mean difference
d)   Confidence Intervals - proportions
a)   Solve Problems 4.18, 4.19, 4.20
Solutions

b)   Confidence Intervals - theory
9   a)   CI for the Variance of Normals
b)   Tests of Hypothesis
a)   Read:   Hypothesis Tests
b)   Watch: Hypothesis Tests #1 and Hypothesis Tests #2
Project
10   Regression       Study examples of regression2.xlsx
Read sections 6.1-6.3 and do problems 6.1 & 6.3 p. 315, to be
11   Moving-Average & Exp-Smoothing
Study solutions of problems 6.1, 6.3

Do problems 6.7 & 6.8 p. 321.   Due on Apr. 27
12   Optimal Assignment
Binary Optimization
Read Sec 9.1-9.3.
13   Study Project Solution
Study QR-Model
Do problems 9.1, 9.3, 9.5. Due on May 4.
Solve the QR-Model posted, when the lead time is 5 days. Due on May 4.
14   Introduction to Linear Optimization
Decision Theory
Review
Problems from Chapter 4
Problems from Chapters 7 & 9

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