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BRIGHT OUTLOOK ON FIRST DAY OF SUMMER
TWO-THIRDS OF NEW JERSEYANS PLAN TO “GO DOWN THE SHORE” THIS SEASON
NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. – As the first day of summer arrives and vacations get into full swing, just over two-thirds of New Jersey residents say they will spend time at the Jersey shore this summer, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Despite the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy, 96 percent of those who typically visit the Jersey Shore plan to do so again this season. A quarter of those who don’t go every year will be joining them this year.
Sandy does not seem to have shortened planned visits for most of those who usually vacation at the Jersey Shore: 63 percent will spend about as much time as in summers past, while 14 percent will stay even longer. Only 19 percent are planning shorter than normal visits, and just a few (2 percent) will not visit at all. For the 21 percent spending less time, just under six in ten say Sandy is the reason for their truncated plans.
In general, most New Jerseyans plan to go down the shore for at least a few days this summer. Among all who are planning a shore vacation, 39 percent expect to do day trips only, while 20 percent plan to do short two- to three-day stays. About 40 percent will stay longer: 15 percent will stay from four days to a week, while 17 percent plan to visit for more than a week. A very lucky seven percent will spend the whole summer at the shore.
“Summer is here, and New Jersey beachgoers are acting on the view that ‘we are stronger than the storm,’ as the ad goes,” said Ashley Koning, manager of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. “The outlook for the summer tourism season appears pretty stable, and while some are cutting back on their shore time this summer, most are planning to spend as much or more time catching some rays and waves and strolling the boardwalks.”
Results are from a poll of 888 New Jersey adults conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from June 3-9 with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.
The typical shore crowd
Across the state, 62 percent say they “typically” spend at least some vacation at the shore, while another 6 percent live at the beach. Unsurprising to anyone who has spent time there or watched MTV’s Jersey Shore, the summer crowd is younger and relatively urban: 71 percent of residents under 30 are regular shore-goers, compared to 41 percent of senior citizens. Shore county residents are most likely to visit the beach (85 percent visit or live there), but they are closely followed by 69 percent of Philadelphia area/South Jersey residents and 64 percent of suburban residents.
Younger visitors are more likely to take shorter trips, while older vacationers and those who are well-to-do are more likely to stay longer. Day trips are most popular for those who typically visit the shore. While more than half take shorter trips, 21 percent go for more than a week, and another 10 percent hang out for the entire summer.
While Jersey Shore regulars are still planning beach trips this season, some visits may be shorter than usual. About a quarter of typical shore-goers who usually stay four days to a week or more than a week are planning to cut back this summer, as are 22 percent of those who typically stay two to three days. But visitors who take day trips or spend the entire summer are more likely to say they plan to spend more time there this season than to say they are cutting back their visits. Fifty-eight percent who will be spending less time at the beach this summer cite Sandy as the reason, and those personally affected by Sandy are more likely to say they will spend less time at the shore this summer as well. Those aware of the “stronger than the storm” ads are 11 points more likely than those who are not to say they will stay for about the same amount of time this summer as in summers past.
“Typical shore-goers do not seem all that deterred by any remnants of Sandy,” said Koning. “While the storm has some effect on their plans and some will visit for a shorter time, most plan to come back for their usual stay, and the promotional campaign seems to be reinforcing this notion among those who are aware of it.”
Most able to rent or return to summer homes despite Sandy damage
As for where they stay, 45 percent of the typical shore crowd rents down the shore, 22 percent own a summer home, and 30 percent say they do not stay overnight. Twenty-four percent of summer homeowners say their houses suffered significant damage from Hurricane Sandy, but 9 out of 10 homeowners are still able to stay in their homes this summer. One in ten either relocated to another place or are still looking for one. Among those who typically rent, nearly three-quarters say they have had no problems renting this year, compared to only 8 percent who say they have had a problem; eighteen percent are unsure of their rental status for this summer.
Older visitors are more likely to own a home down the shore than younger visitors. More affluent households are also more likely to own a summer home than those in lower income brackets. Over a third of those living in shore areas own a home at the shore, as do 32 percent of those who live in south Jersey and a quarter of those from exurban counties.
The longer the typical shore stay, the more likely it is that the visitor is a homeowner. Those who stay the longest are by far the most likely to be home owners: 81 percent of those who stay the entire summer own homes there, compared to just 6 percent who make day trips and more than twice the number of summer home owners who go to the shore for more than a week. Those who make day trips are most likely neither to rent nor own a place, while more than 6 in 10 of those who stay for 2-3 days or more than a week, and more than 7 in 10 of those who stay for 4 days to a week, are more likely to rent.
Who’s going this summer and for how long
While 62 percent of residents typically visit the shore, they will be joined this year by many less-regular visitors, who do not seem deterred by worries about Sandy damage. Fully two-thirds of Garden Staters plan to vacation at the Jersey Shore.
New Jerseyans from all over the state are getting ready to go down the shore this summer. Those residents who have seen or heard the “stronger than the storm” ad campaign promoting Jersey Shore tourism are also 9 points more likely to say they plan to head down the shore this summer – 70 percent, compared to 61 percent who are not aware of the ads.
Day trips continue to be most popular this summer among all visitors – especially with those who live in urban (51 percent) and exurban (41 percent) areas, and are in the lowest income bracket (44 percent). Summer homeowners are more likely to stay down the shore longer as well, while renters are more likely to stay for shorter periods of time.
Residents who have seen or heard the “stronger than the storm” ads are also more likely to spend a longer time at the shore than those who have not seen them – 5 points more likely to spend 4 days to a week, 8 points more likely to spend more than a week, and 1 point more likely to spend the entire summer there.
New Jerseyans new to the shore scene will be taking shorter trips this year than seasoned beach goers. Almost twice as many casual visitors as regulars will be taking day trips only, while those who typically spend time at the shore are much more likely to go for the week or entire summer – 27 percent versus just 1% of newcomers.
“Nothing says summer like going down the Jersey Shore,” said Koning. “And for both seasoned and first-time shore-goers, this summer seems to be no exception. Newcomers may not be staying as long, but they are still planning to put in a good number of days down the shore this summer.”
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THIS RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL 12:01 AM., FRIDAY JUNE 21, 2013
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Rutgers-Eagleton Poll June 3-9, 2013
The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll was conducted by telephone June 3-9, 2013 with a scientifically selected random sample of 888 New Jersey adults. Data are weighted to represent known parameters in the New Jersey adult population, using gender, age, race, and Hispanic ethnicity matching to US Census Bureau data. All results are reported with these weighted data. This telephone poll included 688 landline and 200 cell phone registered voters, all acquired through random digit dialing.
Breakdown of the full adult sample by telephone is as follows:
|Reached on Landline, has no cell phone||9%|
|Reached on Landline, has cell phone||69%|
|Reached on Cell Phone, has no landline||7%|
|Reached on Cell phone, has landline||15%|
All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. The sampling error for 888 adults is +/-3.3 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Thus if 50 percent of New Jersey adults favored a particular position, one would be 95 percent sure that the true figure is between 46.7 and 53.3 percent (50 +/-3.6) if all New Jersey adults were interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording or context effects.
This Rutgers-Eagleton Poll was fielded by Opinion Access Corporation and the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. The questionnaire was developed and all data analyses were completed in house. The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll is paid for and sponsored by the Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University, a non-partisan academic center for the study of politics and the political process.
Weighted Sample Characteristics
(888 New Jersey Adults)